The Dirty

Nik’s Picks – Saturday, 11/22/08 (NCAAF)

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Overall Record: 16-13-1 (In Profit)

Illinois @ Northwestern (+3) – 3:30 PM Eastern

Illinois is way overrated and Northwestern is quietly flying under the radar.  The Wildcats are 8-3 and the Illini are 5-6 so far this season.  The wrong team is favored here.  Last week, Illini QB Juice Williams was benched during the Ohio St. game because of turnovers.  In fact, “the Juice” has thrown 15 INT’s on the year with eight in the last four games.  The Illini are also terrible away from home this year and possess a 1-4 road record.  This week, the Wildcats will have both of their QB’s available.  Both C.J. Bacher & Mike Kafka should be able to go.  One is a passer & the other a runner, which gives the offense more options.  The defensive line for the Wildcats should be able to stop the run & pressure “the Juice.”  Northwestern is at home getting points; it’s an in-state rivalry game, and has a better overall record.  The Wildcats win this game while the Illini remain a disappointment! 

BYU (+7) @ Utah – 6:00 PM Eastern

You gotta love the annual Mormon bowl, except this year is the biggest battle yet!  The whole state of Utah will be wrapped up in this game all weekend.  This game has all sorts of implications.  If Utah wins, they get the Mountain West title and most likely a BCS bid.  If the Super Mormons (BYU) win, then they will secure a share of the championship.  The Cougars can definitely play the “spoiler role” tomorrow and help themselves significantly in the process.  Utah hasn’t seen anything like the passing game that BYU is about to throw at it tomorrow.  The Utes defense will not be able to stop QB Max Hall & the nations leading WR, Austin Collie.  I know that the Utah defense is supposed to be top notch.  But who have they shut down lately?  Let’s see – SDST, TCU, New Mexico, Col St., & Wyoming.  Uh, that looks like a bunch nobody’s to me.  I expect this game to be close.  Remember, 11 of the last 12 meetings between the two have been decided by a touchdown or less.  7 points is a bit too many for the Utah Utes to be laying. 

Texas Tech (+7) @ Oklahoma – 8:00 PM Eastern

It seems like every week the Red Raiders are playing in a HUGE game!  Well, this week gets even bigger.  With a win, the Red Raiders can clinch their first Big 12 South title and take another giant stop towards reaching the big dance.  A loss would likely knock them out of the BCS with the Big 12 champion and either Texas or Oklahoma taking the other spot.  Both of these offenses are legit and can put up points in a hurry.  However, Graham Harrell is a better QB than Sam Bradford in my opinion.  Both are great, except Harrell throws the ball down field a lot better.  Bradford relies on short passes & WR screens.  I also think that the Sooner defense is overrated and that the Red Raider defense is underrated.  Although they keep winning, the Sooner defense has not been the same since LB Ryan Reynolds tore his ACL against Texas.  They will also be without starting DE Auston English for this game.  Look for Harrell & Crabtree to expose the Sooner pass defense much like Texas did.  I expect another close game here.  Tech’s offense is way to powerful to be catching 7 points.  Grab the chalk while you can and run to your bookie!

 [Image: Bruinroar]